China ‘Highly Unlikely’ to Invade this Fall: Taiwanese Official

Soldiers take part in a drill in a military base in Hsinchu, Taiwan, January 19, 2021. (Ann Wang/Reuters)

Taiwan’s intelligence chief said that China is unlikely to attack the island nation this coming fall, during an appearance before Taiwanese legislators last week.

The Taipei Times reported on the comments by Chen Ming-tong, the director general of Taiwan’s national-security bureau:

It is “highly unlikely” that China would invade Taiwan this autumn, National Security Bureau (NSB) Director-General Chen Ming-tong (陳明通) told lawmakers yesterday, amid reports of a leaked Russian intelligence document suggesting that Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) is considering doing so.

“I believe this so-called leaked document is part of cognitive warfare targeting Taiwan,” Chen told a meeting of the legislature’s Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee, but stopped short of naming China or Russia.

As the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is scheduled to hold its 20th National Congress this autumn, the party’s main task is to maintain stability, Chen said.

Chen also made headlines last fall for predicting that a Chinese invasion wouldn’t occur until the end of Taiwan president Tsai Ing-wen’s term, which ends in 2024.

Whether or not Xi aims to mount an attack this fall, Washington needs to work with urgency to shore up Taiwan’s defenses, informed by lessons from Ukraine’s success in fighting off Russian forces.


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